



Syria’s Assad may cling on, Britain will not arm rebels: sourcesAndrew Osborn, Paul Taylor and Guy Faulconbridge 2 hours ago PoliticsSyriaDavid CameronIran
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By Andrew Osborn, Paul Taylor and Guy FaulconbridgeLONDON (Reuters) – Britain has abandoned plans to arm Syrian rebels fighting to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad and believes he might survive in office for years, sources familiar with government thinking say.The sources also told Reuters that a peace conference to try to end the conflict – now in its third year – might not happen until next year if at all.”Britain is clearly not going to arm the rebels in any way, shape or form,” said one source, pointing to a parliamentary motion passed last week urging prior consultation of lawmakers.The reasons for the shift were that British public opinion was largely opposed, and there were fears that any weapons Britain supplied could fall into the hands of Islamist militants.”It will train them, give them tactical advice and intelligence, teach them command and control. But public opinion, like it or not, is against intervention.”The British position amounted to one of the gloomiest assessments of the rebels’ prospects yet. It was Prime Minister David Cameron who led the charge earlier this year for the European Union to drop an arms embargo on Syria, which London and Paris had argued was one-sidedly penalizing the anti-Assad opposition..”View gallery
A Syrian army soldier loyal to Syria’s President Bashar Al-Assad prepares to climb down a ladder in …The involvement of Iran and Hezbollah had shifted the balance of power on the battlefield in Assad’s favor, the sources said, giving him less incentive to negotiate, and the West had no strategy to end the conflict soon.”The Western assessment has changed,” said one source. „We thought Assad could only hold on for a few months. We now think he can last a few years.”Hobbled by debt and defense budget cuts at a time when the United States, Britain and NATO allies are withdrawing forces from Afghanistan, the West says it wants to help the rebels topple Assad.But it finds its options limited.Forces loyal to Assad have made gains in recent months, while rebel groups have been plagued by infighting between Islamist militants linked to Al Qaeda and the more moderate Free Syrian Army. The longer the conflict drags on, the greater the influence the West thinks the Islamists will have, the sources said.U.S. efforts to arm the rebels have stalled in Congress. Britain publicly says it is not ruling out arming the opposition but has privately done so, the sources said.Only a dramatic shift in the situation such as „widespread use of chemical weapons” might force a rethink, another source said, refusing to be drawn on whether a collapse in attempts to broker a political solution might also be a tipping point.Britain has said it believes there has so far been only small-scale use of chemical weapons..”View gallery
A general view shows damaged buildings in Aleppo July 18, 2013. REUTERS/George OurfalianPolitical realities mean any British decision to arm the rebels would need to be endorsed by a vote in parliament anyway.John Baron, a lawmaker from Cameron’s ruling Conservatives who tabled the motion requiring the government to give parliament such a vote, said he thought a majority of lawmakers opposed sending weapons to the rebels. The government would lose such a vote if one were held today, he said.He said the vote may have been one factor which persuaded the government to back away from arming the opposition.”The foreign secretary has formally said that no options are off the table,” he said. „But what we do know is that Number 10 (the prime minister’s office) has been keen to explore the possibility of arming the rebels.”Any move to arm the rebels would increase the violence and suffering, he said, adding the government had not adequately explained how it would stop arms from falling into the hands of extremists on the rebel side.While Gulf allies like Saudi Arabia might be willing to supply arms to the rebels, and France might quietly channel some weapons, the first source said they were unlikely to provide „game-changing” weapons.”If you give arms to General (Salim) Idriss, how sure can you be that they won’t end up in the wrong hands and be used to shoot down a Western civilian airliner?” the source said.France’s foreign minister said on Thursday Paris had still not decided whether to arm the rebels..”View gallery
A Syrian army soldier loyal to Syria’s President Bashar Al-Assad points his weapon as he takes up po …”There are certain conditions that need to be met before eventually sending weapons,” Laurent Fabius told reporters. „For now France has not modified its position. We have the ability to do it, but we haven’t delivered any lethal weapons.”The newly-elected president of the Syrian National Coalition Ahmad Jarba is due in Paris for talks over the next week.NO SILVER BULLETThe West’s efforts to end the conflict were being pursued „on different tracks”, added another source.But nothing was happening on any of them.”If there is a silver bullet we don’t know what it is,” the source said. „All the options are horrific.”Sources said Britain was unwilling to publicly disavow the option of arming the rebels because keeping the option open might help persuade Assad to sit down for peace talks.”None of us can foresee exactly how this crisis will develop,” British Foreign Secretary William Hague told lawmakers this week. „We have taken no decision, but we have not ruled anything out.”.”View gallery
A Syrian army soldier loyal to Syria’s President Bashar Al-Assad runs past sandbags to take cover in …Russia – Assad’s most powerful foreign backer – and the United States want peace talks in Geneva to try to agree a ceasefire and the makeup of a transitional government. The sources said the initiative had stalled and there was a risk such talks would never happen.”We’d hope they would happen this year,” said one. „It’s an aim that’s realistic. But it could be next year. It’s been drifting. We can’t drag it out indefinitely.”Imposing a no-fly zone was a non-starter. „It would need boots on the ground to enforce it and would be horrendously expensive,” the source said.Iran’s decision to pour money and men into Syria to support Assad had made things even harder, another source said, adding there were perhaps as many as 10,000 Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas and Iranian fighters inside Syria including members of the elite Qods brigade of the Revolutionary Guards.Hezbollah openly boasts of its presence in Syria but Iran denies it has troops on the ground.”Assad cannot score a decisive victory, but he can score tactical victories, as he did in Qusair and as he may do in Homs,” said the first source.”The opposition still controls significant swathes of territory along the borders that he cannot recover, and they can hop over the border and regroup.”(Additional reporting by Mark Hosenball in Washington and John Irish in Paris; Editing by Andrew Roche)
Beacon focus of Boeing fire probe, Boston plane upsets investors
View galleryEmergency services attend to a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, operated by Ethiopian Airlines, after it caught fire at Britain’s Heathrow airport in west London July 12, 2013. REUTERS/Toby Melville
3 hours ago Air Accidents Investigation BranchHoneywellBoeing 787 DreamlinerBoeing By Rhys Jones and Alwyn Scott and Andrea Shalal-Esa LONDON/SEATTLE/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – British aviation investigators identified an emergency beacon made by Honeywell International Inc (NYS:HON – News) as a likely source of last week’s blaze on a Boeing Co (NYS:BA – News) 787 Dreamliner and called for it to be turned off, spurring a rally in Boeing shares by relieved investors.Later on Thursday a Japan Airlines <9201.T> 787 returned to Boston’s Logan airport after receiving an in-flight maintenance alert about a fuel pump.A spokesman for the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration said the incident was not an emergency but nervous investors marked Boeing shares down 1.5 percent in afterhours trade.Britain’s Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) said the locator beacon and its battery was the only system on a parked Ethiopian Airlines plane at Heathrow that was near the fire and had the power to start it.Boeing said the beacon could be removed in about an hour from its newest model plane, which was grounded for more than three months earlier this year because of overheating of lithium-ion backup batteries in two January incidents.Shares of Boeing closed 2.7 percent higher at $107.63, near the high of $108.15 reached a week ago before the fire. The Boston incident then saw the shares slip to $106.The AAIB said it remained unclear whether the fire was triggered by a malfunction in the beacon’s lithium-manganese battery or some external force – such as an electrical short circuit – and said the probe would continue.In its report, the AAIB also called on the FAA and other regulators to review use of such emergency beacons that use lithium-based batteries on all other aircraft.UK officials said last week’s fire was unrelated to the January incidents that grounded the 787. Investigators never determined what prompted the batteries involved in those cases to melt down, but Boeing resolved the issue by fireproofing the box they come in, and finding a way to vent any possible fire outside the plane.And there was no indication the return to Boston of the Japan Airlines plane was in anyway connected to previous incidents involving the Dreamliner but it underscored the caution now surrounding the high-tech aircraft.”The pilot decided to turn back out of an abundance of caution,” Richard Walsh, spokesman for Boston’s Logan International Airport told Reuters.Carol Anderson, a spokeswoman for Japan Airlines, said Flight JL007, bound for Tokyo with 184 passengers on board, got a maintenance message related to the fuel pump about three hours after leaving Boston.The plane returned to Boston as a standard precautionary measure, landing safely at the airport at 6:16 p.m. (2216 GMT), and there was no sign of smoke, Anderson said.It was a fire in a parked Japan Airlines 787 at Boston in January that helped lead to the earlier groundings of the Dreamliner, a plane that combines light-weight composite parts and new electrical systems to achieve its fuel efficiency.HIGHER HUMIDITY–While the UK report focused on the beacon made by U.S. conglomerate Honeywell, aviation experts said there could also be issues with the 787’s higher humidity or other environmental factors. Water can conduct electricity, so high moisture levels could increase the likelihood of short circuits.”The investigators are looking at everything, humidity, condensation and … how things are installed. It’s a comprehensive effort,” said one industry source.Boeing’s new plane has a relatively high humidity, which helps keeps passengers more comfortable, and investigators are now looking at whether there is enough insulation to prevent moisture from condensing and short circuiting systems such as the beacon, said the source, who was not authorized to speak publicly.A source close to Boeing, speaking on condition that he not be named, said the 787 may need better isolation of electrical components from the plane’s high humidity, something industry people refer to as „rain in the plane.”Analysts said they were watching for further developments.”There’s nothing about this finding that indicates a lack of safety with the plane, but on the other hand there’s no conclusive proof that a system unrelated to the plane is to blame,” said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with the Teal Group.Analyst Yan Derocles of Paris-based Oddo Securities agreed. „We have to wait for the conclusions and at that point it could be a problem for Boeing, because the succession of incidents could chip away at confidence in the 787,” he said.Boeing said the locator beacon is not required by U.S. Federal Aviation Administration regulations, although some other nations do mandate their use.”If the AAIB recommendation is adopted by regulators, 787 operators would operate their airplanes without a functioning ELT. ELTs are not required as part of the airplane design. There was no requirement to operate the ELTs during 787 flight test,” said Boeing spokesman Marc Birtel.The beacons, also called emergency locator transmitters (ELTs) are positioned in the upper rear of the 787, and can lead rescuers to a downed aircraft. They are powered by non-rechargeable, lithium-manganese batteries used for decades in products like digital cameras, walkie-talkies and pacemakers.HONEYWELL–Honeywell said it would help Boeing and the airlines as needed, but cautioned that it was premature to jump to conclusions about the fire. It said it did not expect any financial impact from the AAIB’s recommended action.Honeywell shares rose 0.6 percent on Thursday to close at $82.97.The AAIB report said the fire broke out in the upper portion of the 787’s rear fuselage where the ELT devices are located. „There are no other aircraft systems in this vicinity which, with the aircraft unpowered, contain stored energy capable of initiating a fire in the area of head damage,” it said.It said large transport aircraft do not have fire detection or suppression in the space above the cabin ceiling, „had this event occurred in flight it could pose a significant safety concern.”Boeing said it supported the AAIB’s recommendations and reiterated its confidence in the Dreamliner’s safety.In Washington, the FAA said it was reviewing the report.The battery linked to the London fire is made by Newark, New York-based Ultralife Corp (NMQ:ULBI – News), according to an industry source. Ultralife did not return calls or emails seeking comment. Its shares fell 1.8 percent to $3.76.The AAIB said Honeywell had produced some 6,000 ELTs of the same design, which are fitted to a wide range of aircraft, and this had been the only significant „thermal incident.”The battery cells in the beacon showed signs of „disruption” the AAIB report said. „It is not clear however, whether the combustion in the area of the ELT was initiated by a release of energy within the batteries or by an external mechanism such as an electrical short.”(Additional reporting by Tim Hepher, Cyril Altmeyer, Brenda Goh, Scott Malone and Peter Henderson; Editing by Leslie Gevirtz and Tim Dobbyn)