Dozens of large wildfires burning in West as California feels the heat
MAX GOLEMBOGood Morning America•Lashing rain and dangerous winds on the moveDozens of large wildfires burning in West as California feels the heat originally appeared on abcnews.go.com A storm system that brought damaging winds and flash flooding has moved off the East Coast and attention turns to the West, where there is high fire danger, and the Southwest, where monsoon flash flooding possible.Evacuations and a state of emergency have been declared for the Museum Fire near Flagstaff, Arizona.There are more than 100 large fires burning in the Unites States on Wednesday morning, including 40 large fires burning in the West alone.
PHOTO: There are 40 large fires burning across the West on Wednesday. (ABC News)Monsoon storms will produce dry, gusty winds and lightning for the West.The heat will increase in parts of central and southern California, where there are heat watches and warnings.Red flag warnings have been issued for Washington, Idaho and Montana.
PHOTO: Temperatures are high in California, while fire warnings are out in the Northern Rockies. (ABC News)Monsoon storms will also produce localized heavy rain for the Southwest over the next several days. Some areas could see more than 2 inches of rain.Flash flooding is possible especially near the burn scar area near the Museum Fire.
PHOTO: Heavy rain is possible in parts of New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado over the next few days. (ABC News)
Europe heat wave breaks records, mercury set to go higher
BERLIN (AP) — Europeans cooled off in public fountains Wednesday as a new heat wave spread across parts of the continent and was already breaking records.
Belgium and Germany registered their highest-ever temperatures, while the Netherlands saw its hottest day in 75 years.
And the mercury is expected to rise even further.
Paris and other parts of France could see temperatures exceeding 40 C (104 F) on Thursday along with Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg and Switzerland.
The heat is putting pressure on authorities to help protect the elderly and the sick. Air conditioning is not common at homes, offices, schools or hospitals in European cities.
The weather is also aggravating droughts since it hasn’t rained much in many parts of Europe this summer. The combination of heat, wind and possible lightning from thunderstorms also increases the risk of wildfires.
WHY IS IT SO HOT?
The second likely-to-be-record-breaking heat wave in two months in Europe includes some of the same ingredients of the first — hot dry air coming from northern Africa. That hot air is trapped between cold stormy systems in the Atlantic and eastern Europe and forms „a little heat dome,” said Ryan Maue, a private meteorologist in the U.S.
This heat wave is a relatively short event where the heat comes with a southerly wind — and dust — from Africa’s Sahara Desert, in contrast to the big European heat waves of 2003 and 2010 which lasted much longer and were sustained by a stationary high pressure system with little wind, experts say.
At the end of June, several countries reported record temperatures, and France hit its all-time heat record: 46 C (114.8 F) in the small southern town of Verargues.
IS CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSING THIS?
Heat waves are happening more frequently in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia, experts say. As the world warms, scientists say there will be more and hotter heat waves, but attributing single events to climate change involves precise computer modeling and calculations.
A team of European climate scientists did a quick, non-peer reviewed analysis of Europe’s June heat wave and found man-made warming made it at least five times more likely.
„Either of the two European heat waves this summer would have been remarkable in isolation. But now we are seeing multiple episodes of record heat in a given summer. By mid-century, we will simply call these episodes ‘summer’ — if we continue on this trajectory,” said Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann, who wasn’t part of the European group.
The heat waves aren’t just because the world is 1 degree Celsius warmer than before the industrial era, but also because climate change and the melting of Arctic sea ice has slowed down the jet stream, which is the river of air that moves weather along, Mann said. The slow jet stream is „a big part of the story when it comes to these very persistent heat extremes we have seen in recent summers,” Mann said in an email.
HOW HOT COULD IT GET THIS WEEK AND WHERE?
Temperatures in France especially are likely to be 15 C (27 F) higher than normal, with Paris likely to break its all-time hottest record mark of 40.4 degrees (104.7 Fahrenheit). Surrounding areas around Paris may hit 41 or 42 C (106 to 108 Fahrenheit), weather experts said.
The Dutch meteorological institute tweeted that Wednesday’s heat wave broke a record that stood for nearly 75 years of the hottest temperature ever recorded in the Netherlands. The Dutch weather service Weerplaza said that the southern city of Eindhoven reported a temperature of 39.3 (102.7 F) Wednesday afternoon.
Belgium measured its highest temperature since records were first kept in 1833. In sun-baked Kleine Brogel in northeastern Belgium, temperatures rose to 39.9 C (102.3 F), and the weather forecaster of the Royal Meteorological Institute said that it was „the highest ever Belgian temperature.”
Also, temperatures won’t cool down much at night, and maybe stay around 24 C (75 F) or higher.
The German Weather Service said a probable record high of 40.5 C (104.9 F) for the country was recorded in Geilenkirchen and put the entire country on heat alert. The previous record of 40.3 C (104.5 F) was set in 2015.
WHAT ARE PEOPLE AND AUTHORITIES DOING TO STAY COOL?
France in particular is haunted by the 2003 heat wave that killed an estimated 15,000 people there, most of them isolated elderly people whose families in many cases were on vacation. The country has since taken measures to try to ensure such a catastrophe isn’t repeated.
Those measures include a color-coded heat alert system to warn people when temperatures are expected to rise to dangerous levels in their area. The alert system went to its maximum level of red for the first time during last month’s heat wave, when France saw its highest-ever recorded temperature.
There are also public service announcements on television, radio and in public transportation systems about risks of high temperatures, telling people to drink water and watch out for isolated elderly people.
Millions of euros in extra funding for emergency services, including more staff members in hospitals and nursing homes overwhelmed in 2003. A government report at the time blamed the death toll on lack of coordination among government agencies, nursing homes that lacked air conditioning and overnight staff, lack of a public alert system, and other problems.
Still, few homes in France or Germany have air conditioning, and many public buildings also lack air conditioning, including hospitals and schools.
In the Netherlands, local authorities have taken an unusual precaution — with trucks scattering salt on the roads like they usually do in the winter.
The salt spreaders are usually used to prevent ice forming on Dutch roads in the cold, but Arnhem municipality started using them to cool off asphalt that is baking in the heat wave.
The city says in a statement that the salt „attracts moisture from the air and cools the asphalt.” It also prevents the asphalt from becoming sticky.
Across London, authorities started handing out water and sunscreen to homeless people and opened day centers for them to rest and shower. In the Lewisham district of the British capital, garbage collectors will start working as early as 5 a.m. in the morning to beat the heat.
London police warned people not to swim in the city’s River Thames after a young man died there Tuesday night.
„Whilst at times, the Thames may look appealing, especially in this hot weather, it remains very dangerous all year round,” police said in a statement. „On initial entry the water can seem warm on the surface, but further in it can be freezing cold and there are often very strong undercurrents.”
WHEN IS IT OVER?
The heat wave will end in a few days. On the weekend, temperatures are expected to fall. However, quite often end of a heat wave brings storms, including lightning and heavy flooding.
___
Seth Borenstein reported from Washington. Elaine Ganley and Angela Charlton in Paris, Natasha Livingstone in London, Mike Corder in The Hague, Netherlands, and Raf Casert in Brussels contributed reporting.
Records tumble in Europe as heatwave bites
Belgium and the Netherlands recorded their highest ever temperatures as a European heatwave soared towards its peak on Wednesday, impacting rail transport and prompting a spike in drownings with people taking to the water.
Cyclists in the Tour de France in southern France had to puff their way over the course in well over 30 degrees Celsius while in the Netherlands, farmers have been leaving their cows outside to sleep, rather than bringing them in at night.
Belgium registered an all-time high of 38.9 degrees Celsius (102 Fahrenheit) at the Kleine-Brogel military base, beating a record that dated back to June 1947.
In the Netherlands, 38.8C at Gilze-Rijen, in the south, smashed a record dating back 75 years.
The second heatwave in less than a month has focused new attention on climate change and a host of French cities broke records on Tuesday. Wine capital Bordeaux hit 41.2C (106.16F).
Paris is facing its hottest day on Thursday with the French capital’s 70-year-plus record of 40.4C (104.7F) forecast to fall. Cooler weather with rain was expected to provide relief from Friday.
„It’s too much for us,” said Sven Schenk, 29, a logistics worker from Germany who was visiting Paris. „We’re not looking forward to tomorrow! But we haven’t changed our plans.”
– Rail chaos –
Britain’s Met Office predicted a chance that the UK temperature record of 38.5 degrees Celsius, which was recorded in Faversham, Kent, in August 2004, will also be exceeded on Thursday at the peak of the heat.
Britain’s Network Rail said it was slowing down trains in response to the extreme weather.
French trains were also slowed down and the national rail operator SNCF advised travellers in the worst affected areas to delay journeys planned at the peak of the heatwave Thursday.
Thalys and Eurostar train services between Brussels, Paris and London were disrupted by a failure on an overhead power line, although it was not immediately clear if this was due to the heatwave.
A Eurostar train bound for London tore down part of the cable support just outside Brussels. The 600 passengers were eventually taken back to Brussels, the Belga news agency said.
Across the area affected by the unusually high heat, people tried to cool off in lakes and rivers.
In London, police were searching for three people who went missing in the River Thames while swimming while three people have drowned in Germany since Tuesday.
Dutch media said hundreds of pigs died when a ventilator failed at Middelharnis.
– ‘Take care of others’ –
France’s weather office said the scorching conditions „require particular care, notably for vulnerable or exposed people” with almost the entire country under an orange-level weather alert, the second highest level.
Paris in particular remains haunted by the early summer of 2003 when 15,000 deaths were blamed on the heat and the authorities were bitterly criticised for not mobilising fast enough.
„We need to take care of ourselves but above all others, especially those who are alone, and be able to detect the first symptoms of heatstroke,” said Prime Minister Edouard Philippe.
Local authorities have placed restrictions on water usage in many areas due to drought-like conditions that have seen ground and river water levels fall dramatically.
Water restrictions are in place in 73 out of the 96 mainland departments, with the worst affected areas in the Loire region of central France, as well as the south west and the south east.
– Climate change –
This summer’s second heatwave has amplified concerns in Europe that human activity is heating the planet at a dangerous rate.
The June 26-28 blast of heat in France was four degrees Celsius (7.2 Fahrenheit) hotter than an equally rare June heatwave would have been in 1900, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) team said this month.
One study by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology said the deadly, weeks-long heatwave across northern Europe in 2018 would have been statistically impossible without climate change.
Swedish teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg, who has highlighted the problem of global warming through school strikes, warned MPs at France’s parliament of dire consequences if „business as usual” continues until 2030.
Trains slowed down as temperature records tumble in Europe
Trains were slowed down and holidaymakers flocked to swimming pools, beaches and lakes in western Europe on Wednesday as another heatwave set new temperature records.
A host of French cities saw their highest levels since records began on Tuesday, with wine capital Bordeaux recording 41.2 degrees Celsius (106.16 Fahrenheit), beating the previous high of 40.7C registered in August 2003, weather service Meteo-France said.
Forecasters predicted new temperature highs in neighbouring countries Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany and the Netherlands, where the mercury could beat the previous record of 38.6 degrees Celsius on Wednesday, according to the Dutch weather office.
Many Dutch farmers are leaving their cows outside to sleep, rather than bringing them in at night, while some kindergartens have closed their doors because of the risks for young children.
Britain’s Met Office has said there is a chance that the UK temperature record of 38.5 degrees Celsius, which was recorded in Faversham, Kent, in August 2004, will also be exceeded on Thursday at the peak of the heat.
The operator of the British rail network, Network Rail, said it was slowing down trains in response to the extreme weather, which comes only weeks after another record-breaking heatwave in Europe in June.
„Extreme heat can cause overhead wires to sag and become damaged by fast trains. We slow down services to keep passengers safe when this happens,” the company said on Twitter.
Across the area affected by the unusually high heat, stretching from France up to Norway in the north, people sought out ways to cool off in lakes and rivers, leading to an increase in drowning incidents.
In London, police were searching for three people who have gone missing in the River Thames while swimming.
– Animal ice-cream –
France’s weather office said the scorching conditions „require particular care, notably for vulnerable or exposed people” with almost the entire country under an orange-level weather alert, the second highest level.
Local authorities have placed restrictions on water usage in many areas due to drought-like conditions that have seen ground and river water levels fall dramatically.
„At the moment, it’s tricky but under control, but we need to be very vigilant,” junior environment minister Emmanuelle Wargon said of national water levels on Tuesday, calling on people to show „civic responsibility” to avoid wastage.
Water restrictions are in place in 73 out of 96 departments in mainland France, with the worst affected areas in the Loire area of central France, as well as the south west and the south east.
While the heat spelt misery for some in sweaty homes and offices, it was a boon for millions of holidaymakers at the beach for their summer holidays, as well as ice-cream makers who are enjoying a stellar summer for sales.
Animals in zoos in many countries are being fed food caked in ice or even frozen blood to keep them cool.
Lions at the Fitilieu wildlife park in western France have been given chicken sorbet.
– Climate change –
The second heatwave in two months has amplified concerns in Europe that human activity is heating the planet at a dangerous rate.
The June 26-28 heatwave in France was four degrees Celsius (7.2 Fahrenheit) hotter than an equally rare June heatwave would have been in 1900, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) team said this month.
One study by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology said the deadly, weeks-long heatwave across northern Europe in 2018 would have been statistically impossible without climate change.
Swedish teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg, who has highlighted the problem of global warming through school strikes, told MPs at French parliament of dire consequences if „business as usual” continued until 2030.
„We will likely be in a position where we may pass a number of tipping points and we will be unable to undo the irreversible breakdown,” she said on Tuesday during a visit to the French parliament.
Many conservative figures on the French right have criticised the invitation, dismissing her as a „prophetess in shorts” and the „Justin Bieber of ecology” and refused to attend the speech.
Britain facing hottest day since records began as 39C forecast for Thursday
Britain is facing its hottest day since records began as The Met Office predicted that temperatures could reach 102F (39C) in southern England, sparking widespread health and transport warnings.
The forecaster issued an amber, level three, heatwave warning, which requires health and social services to start checking on vulnerable groups, such as the elderly. It is just one stage below a national emergency.
Network Rail said it would be imposing speed restrictions on Thursday across the network to reduce the chance of the rails buckling as track temperatures soared past 122F (50C).
Southeastern Rail said it was ‘strongly advising’ passengers to avoid travelling at all as there will be significantly fewer services, which will be much busier and take longer than usual.
Southern Rail also said there would be delays and cancellations across the Gatwick Express, Southern, Great Northern and Thameslink networks.
If temperatures hit 102F (39C) it will be the hottest weather ever experienced in Britain since Met Office records began 178 years ago, in 1841. The previous hottest temperature was 101F (38.5C), recorded on August 10, 2003, at Brogdale, near Faversham, Kent.
The RAC warned drivers to take extra care on the roads which can soften and bubble during extreme heat and said gritters may be deployed to shore up the surface. Motorists have already reported melting roads in Manchester this week.
RAC Breakdown spokesman Rod Dennis said: “If you see some blacker patches of road or pavement, that’s how you can tell it’s starting to melt.
“It also means that drivers might start to see something that they’d normally only associate with the depths of winter – gritting trucks. Salt can help improve the grip on roads that are starting to melt.”
Green Flag estimated there will be more than 81,800 breakdowns this week because of the hot weather compared to the usual 12,800.
The NHS was also braced for a surge in admissions for dehydration. New figures by healthcare analysts Draper & Dash show that when temperatures hit more than 91F (33C) admissions rise by 127 per cent for the general public and 150 per cent for the elderly.
The police were also on standby for a rise in crime in the hot weather. Insurers warned that people leaving windows open would lead to an increase in burglaries. In Troon, Scotland, police released drones on beaches to cut down on anti-social behaviour.
Weather experts said, on current trajectories. Britain could even see its first 104F (40C) day within the coming decades.
Dr Pete Inness, Associate Professor in Meteorology, at the University of Reading, said: “For the temperature to reach 40C this record would have to be beaten by a degree and a half which is a pretty big margin.
“Given that the heatwave conditions we experienced in Europe in 2003 are set to become pretty much the norm by the middle of this century unless some pretty drastic actions are taken very soon, I’d say that a temperature of 40C may well be recorded somewhere in the UK by 2050 and possibly up to a decade earlier than that.”
The Local Government Association (LGA), which represents councils in England and Wales, warned that the elderly and those with heart and respiratory problems were most at risk.
Social workers, community wardens and maintenance staff will be on high alert to support those who might be struggling, and make extra visits to vulnerable people, the LGA said, urged the public to call on friends and family too.
Coun Ian Hudspeth, Chairman of the LGA’s Community Wellbeing Board, said: “The hundreds of deaths caused by high temperatures each year are avoidable. Councils are determined to reduce the toll as much as possible, but they cannot do it alone.
“Looking around at how our older neighbours are coping as we head out to the shops or the beach for a day out takes no effort, but could be crucial in making sure they are also able to make the best of the summer.”
More than 2,000 people in England died due to extreme temperatures during the 2003 heatwave. NHS Digital said this week had seen more than 22,000 visits to the heat exhaustion and heatstroke page of the NHS website, compared to an average of 4,242 visits to the same page throughout the rest of the month.
Dr Clare Heaviside, Research Fellow, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, said: The negative effects of heat on health tend to get worse with higher temperatures, particularly for vulnerable population groups such as the elderly, those with chronic health conditions or people working outdoors.
“This was reflected by the devastating mortality impacts of the 2003 heatwave across Europe, and during consequent heatwaves in recent years.
„Office workers may also be affected by the excess heat associated with the urban heat island, and high temperatures on public transport as they commute to work.”
The Met Office issued a severe weather warning for the east of England and Scotland for Thursday and Friday warning that thunderstorms could bring flooding, train cancellations, and power cuts, ending the heatwave with a bang.
The weather is likely to feel significantly cooler by the weekend, with temperatures falling back into the usual summer conditions of the late 70sF (mid-20sC).
The warming U.S. foretells the return of dreaded megadroughts
Megadroughts, persisting for decades at a time, parched the Southwestern U.S. centuries ago between 800 CE and 1600 CE. Then, the extreme droughts stopped.
But with temperatures today both exceeding the warm climes of past droughts and now relentlessly rising, the return of the Southwestern megadroughts is almost assured. New research, published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, illustrates how a timely confluence of warm temperatures and changes in the ocean stoked a cluster of 14 potent Medieval-era megadroughts.
Similar events could unfold again.
„This is what we would expect to happen in the future too,” said Nathan Steiger, an associate research scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University and lead author of the study.
Since 1901, average temperatures have increased across nearly the entire Southwest, in many places by over 2 degrees Fahrenheit. Record high temperatures have been repeatedly broken around different regions of the Southwest since 2012. Meanwhile, over the greater globe, 18 of the 19 warmest years on record have occurred since 2001.
Image: National Climate Assessment / adapted from Vose et al. 2017.
To gauge how previous Southwestern megadroughts arose, Steiger and his team employed an advanced reconstruction of the past climate over the last 2,000 years, which uses evidence stored in tree rings, ancient glacial ice, lake sediments, coral reefs, and beyond.
During one of the peaks of crippling dryness around 800 years ago, the once flourishing Chaco Culture abandoned their great houses and intricate societies (though other factors may have played a role, too). Thousands of miles away, there was an increase in periods of colder than usual sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean, known today as La Niña events. La Niña has the well-documented effect of pushing rain-bearing storms farther north, above the Southwest, which deprives the region of rain. To boot, a warming trend in Atlantic ocean waters also contributed to forcing storms north of this region. „It can then dry out the Southwest,” noted Steiger.
But that’s not all. Steiger also noted that a slight uptick in the sun’s activity warmed the region while a lack of volcanic activity (which reflects sunlight) allowed more heat to reach Earth.
For some 800 years, then, the right conditions came together to foster and sustain a series of decades-long megadroughts.
„[The researchers] are essentially listing the ingredients you need to have these megadroughts,” said Flavio Lehner, a climate scientist focused on hydroclimate at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Lehner had no role in the research.
„Their story makes a lot sense to me — it makes a compelling case,” he added. „But as often occurs in science, it’s probably not the last word,” Lehner said, noting that climate researchers don’t fully understand longer term La Niña fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean and the probabilities of another megadrought — or cluster of megadroughts — occurring.
But one thing is clear. The primary „ingredient” of warming and record-breakingtemperatures will be present this century — if not well beyond (depending on how or if civilization slashes heat-trapping carbon emissions). „It’s by far the most certain part of the equation,” Lehner said.
Image: nasa giss
A series of La Niñas could then come along and „trigger” a megadrought, explained Steiger.
Though, a sustained drought — an event even flirting with the designation of „megadrought” — might occur just from the current global warming trend alone. It’s threatening to happen now as warming climes dry out Southwestern lands and watersheds: The Southwest is mired in a 19-year drought, the worst in Colorado River history. „There’s no analog, from when humans started gauging the river, for this drought,” Brad Udall, a climate research scientist at Colorado State University, explained last year.
An exceptionally rainy last winter (the wettest winter on record in the Lower 48), however, may finally signal an end to the drought. Or not.
„If [the drought] continues to be severe, it would be within the realm of a historical megadrought,” said Steiger.
„If the next five years are dry again then you can treat it as one 24-year drought,” agreed Lehner. „We’re coming to a point whether this drought is like a megadrought of the past.
Image: nasa
Overall, one of the most straightforward and predictable consequences of climate change is amplified drought, especially in already drought-prone regions. Hotter climes mean more evaporation from the land.
„Most future model simulations show a strong increase in drought in the Southwest,” said Jessica Tierney, a geoscientist at the University of Arizona who had no role in the study. „That’s going to be a problem for all the arid lands.”
SEE ALSO: The hard truth about being a 21st century tree in California
And, expectedly, amplified dryness is a big ingredient of future megadroughts. Though, another big component is what transpires in the tropical Pacific Ocean — the place where La Niña brews. „The other half of the equation is precipitation, which depends on what the tropical Pacific is going to do,” Tierney emphasized.
Right now, the future behavior of the ocean, such as an uptick in La Niñas, isn’t predictable. Neither, then, are megadroughts. „It remains difficult to say if and when we should expect these megadroughts to occur in the next 100 years,” said Lehner.
But, with the ongoing warming trend and the highest atmospheric levels of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in at least 800,000 years, megadroughts could be closer on the horizon.
„This study has paleoclimatic evidence supporting that future possibility,” said Steiger.
